Super El Niño 2026-27: where history says to ski

NOAA, 2026-10-08: “El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance).” Chance of a very strong El Niño this winter (Dec–Feb): 81%. Chance it is the strongest since 1950 (Oct–Dec): 83%. Next update 2026-11-12.

Snowpack in the 6 strong El Niño winters since 1982-83, by region

• Sangre de Cristo, New Mexico: 134% of normal (6% to 169%), leaned snowier. 4 of 6 strong winters above normal (111-169%), but in 2015-16 a 112%-of-normal snowpack on Feb 1 melted to 6% by April 1. Resorts: Taos Ski Valley.
• Southcentral Alaska: 132% of normal (109% to 159%), leaned snowier. Both stations near Alyeska were above normal in at least 5 of 6 strong winters, which runs against the Alaska-wide composite. Treat as a weak finding. Resorts: Alyeska.
• Lake Tahoe: 115% of normal (62% to 239%), leaned snowier. The biggest upside of any region: 1982-83 and 1997-98 were about 1.7x to 2.4x a normal snowpack. But 1991-92 was a drought winter (62%), and 2009-10 and 2015-16 were only about normal. Resorts: Heavenly Mountain, Kirkwood, Northstar, Palisades Tahoe, Sugar Bowl.
• East slopes of the Washington Cascades: 111% of normal (86% to 159%), leaned snowier. One nearby station only. It came in above normal in 3 of 6 strong winters (up to 159%) and 86-87% in two others. Resorts: Mission Ridge.
• Utah Wasatch: 110% of normal (57% to 162%), no clear pattern. No dependable El Niño signal. Big years (1982-83, 2023-24) and a bad one (1991-92) both happened. Resorts: Alta Ski Area, Brighton, Deer Valley, Park City Mountain, Snowbasin, Snowbird, Solitude.
• Eastern Sierra: 106% of normal (72% to 257%), no clear pattern. Two monster years (1982-83 at 257%, 1997-98 at 176%), one dry year, three about normal. Nearest long-record SNOTEL is 52 km away. Resorts: Mammoth Mountain.
• Central Oregon Cascades: 100% of normal (31% to 150%), no clear pattern. No reliable pattern: from 31% of normal (1991-92) to 150% (1982-83). Resorts: Mt. Bachelor.
• Central and northern Colorado: 100% of normal (78% to 112%), no clear pattern. Close to normal almost every time: 78% to 112% of normal. El Niño has told you little here. Resorts: Arapahoe Basin, Aspen Snowmass, Beaver Creek, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Crested Butte, Keystone, Steamboat, Vail, Winter Park.
• BC Coast: 100% of normal (56% to 103%), no clear pattern. Swings both ways: Forbidden Plateau by Mount Washington was 135-144% in 1982-83 and 1997-98, but 54% in 2023-24. Resorts: Mount Washington Alpine Resort, Whistler Blackcomb.
• San Juan Mountains, Colorado: 99% of normal (90% to 131%), no clear pattern. Slightly above normal in the two oldest events, slightly below in the last two; 90% to 131%. Resorts: Telluride.
• BC Interior and Kootenays: 93% of normal (80% to 110%), no clear pattern. Near to slightly below normal, rarely a big year: 80% to 110% at high-elevation courses, and warm winters hurt low elevations most. Resorts: Fernie Alpine Resort, Kicking Horse, Panorama, RED Mountain, Revelstoke Mountain Resort, Sun Peaks.
• West Virginia: 91% of normal (60% to 158%), no clear pattern. All over the place: 158% in 2009-10 and 126% in 1997-98, but 60-65% in 1982-83 and 2023-24. Resorts: Snowshoe.
• Washington Cascades: 88% of normal (65% to 113%), leaned thinner. Usually a below-normal snowpack: Stevens Pass finished every strong El Niño winter since 1982-83 under its normal April 1 level. Resorts: Crystal Mountain, Stevens Pass.
• Canadian Rockies, Alberta side: 88% of normal (82% to 99%), leaned thinner. Below normal in 4 of 6 strong winters and never above 99%. Resorts: Lake Louise, Marmot Basin, Sunshine Village Banff.
• Northern Rockies: 87% of normal (68% to 142%), leaned thinner. Usually below normal: 3 of 6 strong winters at 80% or less. 1982-83 was the one big exception. Resorts: Big Sky Resort, Grand Targhee, Jackson Hole Mountain Resort, Schweitzer, Sun Valley.
• Northeast US: 83% of normal (50% to 102%), leaned thinner. Below normal in 4 of the last 6 strong winters; 2015-16 was about half of normal. Older strong winters (1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73) were near or above normal, so this is a recent tendency, not a law. Resorts: Jay Peak, Killington, Loon Mountain, Mount Snow, Okemo, Stowe Mountain, Stratton, Sugarbush, Sugarloaf, Sunday River, Whiteface Mountain.